Toulouse, France: According to Airbus’ 2014-2033 Global Market Forecast, new deliveries of passenger and freight aircraft for China will be 5,363 over the next 20 years, including 3,567 single aisle aircraft, 1,477 twin-aisles and 319 very large aircraft. With a total market value of US$ 820 billion, this represents 17 percent of the global demand for more than 31,000 new aircraft over the next 20 years.
With passenger traffic in China growing well above the world average, it is set to become the leading country for passenger travel in both domestic and international markets. The country is expected to overtake the US in 2023, in terms of the number of passengers, and in 2027, in terms of Revenue Passenger Kilometre (RPK). Domestic air traffic in the country will also become the world's number one in 10 years.
In the next 20 years, the forecast average annual growth rate for the domestic Chinese market is 7.1 percent but will grow even faster over the next 10 years at 8.3 per cent on average per year. By 2033, the domestic Chinese market will remain the largest flow, representing 11.9 per cent of world traffic in terms of RPK.
During the period between 2013 and 2023, the average annual growth rate for international traffic from/to mainland China will be 8.1 percent. Four out of the 20 largest flows (RPK) will be from/to the country. The average annual growth rate for markets between emerging Asian countries and China is 7.5 per cent, 6.6 percent for China-US routes, and 5.6 percent for routes between Western Europe and China.
One of the reasons for the country's dynamic air transport growth is its long-term economic development. The average annual economic growth in the country is forecast at 7.4 percent between 2013 and 2023, and it will become the world’s biggest economy in 2023, with its GDP accounting for 19 per cent of the world’s total.
This economic growth is in turn, spurred by the country's urbanisation. While the urban population in China’s mainland was 711 million in 2013, representing 54 percent of the total population, this will grow to 1.014 million in 2033 to represent 71 percent of the population.
Average wages in China have increased five-fold in the past decade and they will continue to rise in the years ahead, fuelling higher levels of disposable income and private consumption, which is expected to account for 41 percent of Chinese GDP in 2023.
